How long will my retirement corpus last?

Zero is a date, not a vibe

Someone promised Kollam that ₹1.6 crore lasts forever at ₹55,000 a month. Forever has a monthly burn rate.

₹55,000 × 12 = ₹6.6 lakh a year on ₹1.6 crore is about 4.1% on day one. Survivable if returns stay decent. Add spending inflation and the tap widens every year.

Start there. Marketing copy can wait its turn.

Someone in Kollam will still tell you a story that skips the EMI night. Ignore that person.

The spreadsheet is the easy half. The debit surviving April is the rest.

Drop assumed return to 7% in the SWP widget and watch leftover after 25 years. If it kisses zero, you found the truth before the beach photos.

When the gap looks ugly, the gap is doing its job.

A retirement chart that needs 14% forever is a holiday brochure.

Return vs debit is a race

Type corpus, monthly debit, 7–8% return, 25 years. Note whether leftover is above zero.

Run a second pass with 10% higher withdrawal. If it dies before year 20, the lifestyle is the bug.

Open a calculator and type the ugly version first—₹6.6 lakh out in a year the portfolio also fell 20%. You sold extra units cheap to fund groceries..

Pretty assumptions belong in investor-day decks, not in your rent money.

Rule: corpus −20% from peak, cut SWP 10% that year. Pride is not a runway light.

A 25% drop in year 2 with the same ₹55,000 debit is how a 30-year chart becomes an 18-year life.

If you cannot explain the result to a slightly impatient parent, you do not understand it yet.

Runways that assume 12% forever

Using last year’s 16% fund return as the forever engine.

Hiding a wedding in “one-time” that happens twice.

Ignoring that FD buckets empty too if you pull principal every month.

If a caption fits in eight words, it skipped the messy month.

Your cousin’s 2017 small-cap luck is not a policy.

When the salary or the date moves, reopen the calculator. Do not recycle last year’s PDF.

In Kollam the skipped review later becomes a complaint about luck. It was maintenance.

Cut spend in ugly years

Start near 4%, assume 7–8%. If 30-year leftover is thin, work longer or spend less.

Already withdrawing 6%+: name it a short runway, not a pension.

Keep 24 months of SWP in liquid so a crash is not a fire sale.

Buffer first, ugly debt second, this goal third. Reverse it and the goal becomes a loan.

Investing while revolving a 36% card is theatre.

If cash is tight this quarter, shrink the plan. Do not vanish from it.

A smaller SIP or a shorter loan goal beats a heroic screenshot you cancel in six weeks.

₹1.6 crore vs ₹55,000 a month

₹1.6 crore, ₹55k/month, 7%, 25 years: if leftover is near zero, you are on the edge.

Same tank, ₹40k/month: the line stays in the air longer than any speaker can promise.

Inflate the ₹55k by 5% a year and the 4.1% start is not 4.1% in year 12. Model it.

Treat every rupee here as a sketch. Lenders and markets get a vote later.

If the plan only works at 18% returns or a 6% home loan forever, it is not a plan.

The bear version is the one you should be able to explain at dinner.

Keep a 10% haircut for tax, fees, or the extra month the builder delays.

If the bar hits 70, you do not have a 30-year plan

Depletion is withdrawal plus time minus return.

If you will not look at the year the line hits zero, you are flying without a fuel gauge.

If you only work this in January, you are doing astrology.

Calendar reminder beats a quote about discipline.

Do not forward a 40-message thesis. Send the tool and the date you used.

And please date your spreadsheet. Future you will not remember which fantasy version this was.

Estimates only. Lender, CA, or advisor before you move real money.